Economists as Storytellers: Scenario Drafting at the International Monetary Fund

Abstract This article explores the history of scenario drafting at International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1970s and 1980s. Introduced late 1970s, scenarios were used to compare, assess, illustrate assumed effects different policy actions or inactions. They provided alternative versions a hypothetical future, derived from research staff's narrative reasoning by which IMF researchers stitched together qualitative quantitative assessments, macroeconomic theories, preferences, presented an instrument guide policymaking member countries. The points four functions economic reasoning: as sense-making technology, tool persuasion, fill gaps correct reasoning, link measures changes parameters variable inputs complex econometric models. And yet, focusing on often-futile consultations with United States, also highlights limits narrative. challenges Robert Shiller's description spread “random event,” pointing instead economists' role storytellers.